Drought Prediction and its long and short run consequence on major crops in Purulia District, West Bengal: An ARDL Analysis

Abstract

Insufficient rainfall or drought adversely affects agricultural yield, resulting in food insecurity. The present study comprises two components. The major objectives are to analyse the frequency of droughts in the Purulia region over a 20-year period using the Normalised Rainfall Index (NRI) and to examine the short- and long-term correlations between rainfall and agricultural output. The study develops indices to monitor drought periods and employs time series econometrics to correlate them with agricultural output. It also conducts a comprehensive examination of prior research. This study organises secondary data on rainfall and rice output collected from 2001 to 2020. The research utilises a satellite data set provided by the California-based Centre for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) to collect rainfall information. The rice production data was sourced from the Purulia district's agricultural office and the district statistical handbook. According to the skewness-based NRI measurement, the study found that Purulia was undergoing a slight drought. The strong link between the underlying variables was determined by cointegration analysis and ARDL bounds testing. The results indicate that rainfall and other climatic factors positively influence the production of Aman rice in both the short and long timeframes. The study found that rice production is greatly affected by insufficient rainfall. Farmers and policy officials should explore using temperature-resistant crop varieties to prevent food scarcity.