Analyzing the Role of the Agriculture Section in Growing Iran's Economy

Abstract

The agricultural sector is one of the most fundamental economic divisions. We investigated the effect of value-added indicators of the agricultural division on Iran's economic growth by an autoregressive method with distributive intervals (ARDL) during the period 1968- 2015 in this study, regarding the significance of the agricultural sector and the role of its value-added on Iran's economic growth and ultimately, on the growth of the national economy. According to the first model, it was concluded that the value-added of the agricultural division in the short and long term has a positive and negative effect on economic growth, respectively. Additionally, the agricultural division's investment index in both short-term and long-term periods is statistically significant and positively affects economic growth. The index of trade liberalization of the agricultural sector has no positive effect on the economic growth in the short term, but it has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long term. Subsequently, according to the second model, the value-added index of the agricultural sector in the short term has no significant effect on economic growth but has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long term. Also, the residual index of agricultural facilities index has no significant effect on economic growth in the short term but has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long term. The effect of the index (first-time interruption) degree of economic openness of the agricultural division in the short term has no significant effect on economic growth, but has a positive and significant effect on economic growth with two interruptions, but has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long term. Hence, the government must seriously consider the agricultural division to realize its macroeconomic objectives.